Hussein didn't have any weapons, just a flag: The Current state of Bahrain and the Possibility of Intrastate Conflict
Protest and subsequent repression doesn't appear to be
slowing down in Bahrain. Last month Bahrain’s “highest appeal court upheld life
sentences for seven men accused of calling for anti-government demonstrations”1.
During protests earlier this month marking the 2-year anniversary of the 14th
February protest, a 16-year-old boy, Hussein Al-Jaziri, was killed
with shotgun fire from regime forces2. The opposition in Bahrain has
shown a surprising amount of robustness by maintaining a nearly constant state
of protest for the last two years, but during this time, Bahrain has become an
example of the limits of non-violent movements.
Fatima Haji holds up a photo of the fatal chest wound of
Hussein Al-Jaziri
A Regional Buildup
Recent reports suggest a massive buildup of military
technology in the Gulf region. The primary customers appear to be members of
the Gulf Cooperation Council. Of these members, Saudi Arabia has been the
biggest consumer; buying up some $52.1 billion worth of military hardware
including transport aircraft, patrol boats and observation drones3.
What this regional armament means however is unclear. Some purchases point to a
possible regional missile defense shield in the future, but as Patrick Dewar,
senior vice-president for corporate strategy and business development at
Lockheed Martin says, the counties of the GCC are “Keenly interested in their
own sovereignty”4. While Saudi Arabia cites a fear of Iran, the
smaller members of the GCC could potentially be acting based on the 2011
protests and the eventual insertion of GCC forces into Bahrain. How much desire
or ability the regime in Bahrain has to keep the forces of the GCC from again
intervening is uncertain, but the buildup highlights the issue of capacity.
Does the regime in Bahrain have the capacity to defy its powerful neighbors if
it decides to take a reformist route? A Nation Under Occupation
Whether the regime in Bahrain can defy its neighbors is a
moot point however if it does not intend to change course. Bahrain’s government
has shown signs of seeking to please the international community, but actual
reform seems far from its current goals. The one saving grace of the regime
currently seems to be the fact that the opposition is not armed. All other
ingredients for a potential civil war in the tiny island country appear to be
present: the government is a principal combatant and is organized politically
and militarily, the main opposition group recruits locally and is politically
organized. The possibility of civil war should the opposition gain military
organization is further suggested by protesters’ willingness to stand up to
police and face imprisonment, torture and possible death. Where such military capacity will come from, if it ever does, is unknown. This is especially true if, as the opposition claims, international actors are turning a blind eye to events in Bahrain.
Young residents gather tear gas canisters fired in the village of Daih, Bahrain
Works Cited
1. “A mirage of rights: Royal rulers are
increasingly twitchy.” The Economist 19 Jan. 2013. Online. <http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21569765-royal-rulers-are-increasingly-twitchy-mirage-rights>.
2. “Teenager dies during Bahrain uprising
anniversary protest.” Deutsche
Welle 14 Feb. 2013.
Online <http://dw.de/p/17dzL>.
3. Peel, Michael and Hall, Camilla. “Gulf
states buying up military hardware.” The Financial Times 19 Feb. 2013.
Online. < http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4ffc8f38-7ab5-11e2-915b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2LxkLqMkM>.
4. ibid.
5. Photos and
Title: Kouddous, Sharif Abdel. “Scenes From a Bahraini Burial.” The Nation
20 Feb. 2013. Online. <http://www.thenation.com/article/173011/scenes-bahraini-burial#>.
Always interesting to see a massive purchase in arms. It makes sense that Saudi Arabia would make that purchase in a means of defense. “Keenly interested in their own sovereignty”. Wishing the best for Saudi Arabia. R.I.P. Hussein Al-Jaziri. Misunderstanding how a non-violent protest can end up with a 16-year old dead. WOW!
ReplyDeleteI agree, a large purchase of arms like this is always interesting to see. It is also somewhat interesting to see that Saudi Arabia is somehow funneling these weapons to antigovernment fighters in Syria in attempts to end the stalemate that has allowed President Bashar al-Assad to gain power. I think this type of activist help from Saudi Arabia to Syria is undoubtedly in part of a counter effort to oppose the shipments of weapons from Iran to Assad's forces. It will be interesting to see how this arms race plays out and if it turns in to intrastate conflict or it if dissolves.
ReplyDeleteI would not go as far as to say that it is a moot point if Bahrain can defy its neighbors because it does not want to change course now. It is a serious issue for the future. Although the current regime is well backed-up (by Saudi Arabia actively, and in a passive, wishing-to-maintain-its-strategic-military-base-way by the U.S.) the issue of what will happen in the future when the regime falls is important. This may not be until current leaders die off, but there is continued opposition which is not going away even with serious repression. The choice for Bahrain as a country to reform--and to be a sovereign state--is an important one, and I am glad that we are looking at these issues, and you are writing on them.
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