Deadly Diffusion: Syrian Conflict Spilling in to Lebanon. By Casey Lillis
As the current situation in Syria continues to escalate and complicate, United States aid has increased to $123 Billion in nonlethal aid. The Obama administration still continues to reject rebel forces request for arms. On Monday Human Rights Watch disclosed information to the public that both Syrian Government and rebel forces of taking their war across the border and attacking villages in Lebanon, the targets all seemed to be nonmilitary making these strikes look like irrational acts of terror instead of strategic military strikes, which “were indiscriminate and therefore violate the laws of war(Mourtada).” By taking this war to another country it points the diffusion effect and how conflict can be carried over in to surrounding regions. On April 20th rebels groups called to “transfer the battle of blood into the heart of Lebanon(Mourtada),” as they believe Hezbollah fighters are being sent over to combat them on their home soil in Syria, specifically in the city of Qusayr.
These current developments should be of major concern to the international community as it continues to spread violence throughout the NEMA region, continuing to involve more foreign governments, rebel forces, and terrorist organizations which is only complicating a future resolution while escalating the present situation. As rebels still lack a unified command it is difficult for the U.S. to assess the situation and their needs. With lethal aid not an option the U.S. is considering, its enormous amount of nonlethal aid and supplies points to their effort to combat Russian and Iraqi support for the Assad regime.
Based on Goodwin’s theory, revolutions occur as a direct response to political repression and violence in a repressive and weak state, therefore the U.S. must use military power to quickly squash this weak government, as unlike our previous conflicts in the region the U.S. would have a large-scale support base in the Syrian population.
Based on the diffusion theory and the many external and internal factors and groups this conflict seems to only be escalating. Policy makers must start to consider sending arms and lethal aid to the opposition forces as nonlethal aid does not seem to be making as big of an impact as desired. Now that this conflict has crossed in to another state the U.N. needs to play a larger role to protect civilians that are being targeted as well as facilitate talks strategies to calm this situation.
Mourtada, Hania. "Syrian War Spilling Into Lebanon, Rights Group Says." New York Time 22 April 2013, n. pag. Web. 22 Apr. 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/23/world/middleeast/syria-lebanon.html?_r=0>.