The Uncertain Future of Tunisia

Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali announced on February 6^th that he planned on developing a government composed of apolitical technocrats, leading to a “cabinet reshuffle” (Yaros). This interim cabinet would help facilitate the transitional government’s work of drafting a new constitution, restructuring the government, and organizing elections. Despite the fact that the Prime Minister’s party, Ennahda, did not agree with the decision, he has made it clear he plans to move forward. The Prime Minister declared on Saturday that the new interim government would be unveiled by the middle of this week. As of February 10^th, Jebali has threatened to resign if his design for a technocratic cabinet is not accepted.  

Protesters on Habib Bourguiba Avenue (Feb 9th, 2013)

On Saturday, February 9^th, approximately 3,000 Ennahda supporters gathered on Habib Bourguiba Avenue to demonstrate their support for the Prime Minister and Ennahda party. Habib Bourguiba Avenue is the same location as the “epicenter” of the revolution in 2011 that ousted then President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. 

However, as of February 10^th, the three ministers of the secular party of Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki have been withdrawn. The party claims that they have not seen their demanded changes in the cabinet. A party official from Congress for the Republic, Samir Ben Amor, stated that this withdrawal had nothing to do with Jebali’s proposed cabinet, but that the foreign and justice ministers had not been changed. Nevertheless, this move has effectively weakened Jebali’s already precarious and unsupported plan.

While disconcerting, this political unrest illustrates Noueihed and Warren’s point that “Unlike elsewhere in the region, the battle for Tunisia will largely be fought by internal parties rather than external players”(95). Additionally, the debate between the Ennahda and secular parties illustrates the hopefully successful move from a single-party regime to a government where there is legitimate competition between parties.

The rapidly changing dynamics within the country are significant, particularly between the Ennahda and secular parties and their support of Jebali’s new cabinet, because they will determine the future of the Tunisian government. The demonstration by Ennahda supporters on the 9^th illustrate the continued use of nonviolent resistance, which is possibly a ray of hope that conditions will not deteriorate into more violent attacks or assassinations. This is further supported by the statement by Noueihed and Warren that Tunisia “became a model of peaceful protest”(95), and it seems as if it will continue to be so.

Demonstration in Tunis (February 7th, 2013)

Although the Tunisian people were able to overthrow Ben Ali in less than a month, actual change is appearing to slow as the government struggles to restructure and legitimize itself. This could mean a indefinite continuation in nonviolent protests and demonstrations, or this could mark the beginning of a period of increased political violence, such as the assassination of Chokri Belaid. As we discussed in class, violent campaigns are often used a last resort; after two years of attempting to define “Tunisia today,” Tunisians may be feeling that the situation is dire enough to resort to political violence. Additionally, Aljazeera speculates, “If Ennahda refuses [Jebali’s] offer, Tunisia will just plunge into further uncertainty.” It will be the responsibility of Prime Minister Jebali to coordinate with his party as well as with President Marzouki to arrive at a compromise, rather than ostracize himself from Ennahda as well as the secular components of government. What will continued uncertainty mean for Tunisia?

Sources:

“Dispute Plunges Tunisia into political limbo.” Aljazeera. Web. 10 Feb 2013. <http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/02/201321013419800855.html>

Fahim, Kareem and David D. Kirkpatrick. “New Uncertainty Grips Tunisia After Assassination.” The New York Times. Web. 7 Feb 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/08/world/africa/tunisia-assassination-protests.html?_r=0>

Noueihed, Lin and Alex Warren. “The Battle for the Arab Spring: Revolution, Counter-Revolution and the Making of New Era.” Yale University Press, 2012.

“Tunisia President to resign if new cabinet rejected.” Aljazeera. Web. 10 Feb 2013. <http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/02/2013291157142522.html>

Yaros, Bernard. “Live Updates: Tunisia Struggles to Form New Government.” Tunisialive. Web. 11 Feb. 2013. <http://www.tunisia-live.net/2013/02/11/live-updates-tunisia-struggles-to-form-new-government/>

Turmoil in Tunisia

Turmoil in Tunisia

Democracy: To be, or not to be? That is the question.

Tunisians carry the coffin of Chokri Belaid during his funeral procession in Tunis

                Wednesday’s assassination of Tunisian Democratic Patriots leader, Shokri Belaid, is yet another set back for a nation that has been plagued with social and political divide since the uprisings of 2010-2011. The murder of the left wing politician who was active and vocal in his opposition of the ruling coalition marks a new low point in the efforts to found a peaceful, democratic government in the North African nation. 

Tunisia and the Extended State of Emergency

President Moncef Marzouki

On January 31, 2013, President Moncef Marzouki of Tunisia declared, after consulting with Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali and Speaker of National Constituency Assembly Mustapha Ben Jaafer, that the state of emergency declaration will be extended (Lesley 2013). This decision was contradictory to previous understanding given by Marzouki at the African Union Summit on Monday, January 28, 2013 that the state of emergency would not be extended.  

A state of emergency, basically grants the leaders the special power of intervention. As discussed in lecture is used for leaders of a country to ignore the rule of law in order for that county to function.

The state of emergency in Tunisia was issued in January of 2011 by former President Ben Ali. From then on the usual extension has lasted roughly 30 days until October 31, 3012. The state of emergency was extended to expire on February 1, 2013. According to Aljazeera, this extension was in response to a series of attacks by salafists. There have also been reports of increased internal unrest as well as armed clashes with militant groups.

There are different theories as to the reason behind the most recent extension set to expire March 2, 2013. One reason is because of a recent altercation with police and an armed group in Kasserine. This altercation resulted in the wounding of two Tunisian security agents.

In terms of risk analysis, an extended state of emergency does not help the situation. It reveals a level of fear for the increased stability of the nation. It also provides an image of deteriorating security. Although Noueihed and Warren say, in their book The Battle for the Arab Spring, that "Tunisia has made more progress towards democracy than any other Arab country that saw unrest in 2011, and has a greater chance than any other of making a relatively peaceful transition" the extended state of emergency seems to hint that the transition is not yet complete (2012).

 

Mr. Chokri Belaid

Today's assassination of Anti-Islamist politician Chokri Belaid in Tunis, the first political assassination since the uprising in 2011, lead to mass outrage and anger across Tunisia. The BBC reported that the 'Political Front' group that Belaid was a member of is calling for a nationwide strike in protest against the assassination. It seems that instances such as this assassination combined with the extension of the state of emergency will slow the peaceful, Tunisian revolution.

Protesters flocked to the streets as Chokri Belaid's body was brought for burial

 

Sources:

Hiett, P. (2013, February 6). Tunisia PM Forms New Government After Assassination. Retrieved February 6, 2013, from BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21359260

Lesley, E. (2013, January 31). State of Emergency Extended Depsite Previous Reports. Retrieved February 5, 2013, from Tunisialive: http://www.tunisia-live.net/2013/01/31/state-of-emergency-extended-despite-previous-reports/

Press, A. (2013, January 31). Tunisia renews state of emergency for another month citing regional unrest. Retrieved February 5, 2013, from FOX News: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/01/31/tunisia-renews-state-emergency-for-another-month-citing-regional-unrest/

Tunisian President Extends State of Emergency. (2012, October 31). Retrieved February 5, 2013, from Aljazeera : http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/10/2012103123162368949.html