tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1042587494012331021.post5439564147006381937..comments2023-09-07T03:20:24.100-07:00Comments on Revolutions and Political Violence: Media Restrictions in IranMichael Bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09669512353829041768noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1042587494012331021.post-74245488452544889962013-02-10T06:43:46.318-08:002013-02-10T06:43:46.318-08:00I think you make an interesting point about Iran u...I think you make an interesting point about Iran usually "easing up" on the media during election years in order so seem more democratic to the outside eye. But this year, with the Arab Spring, how they are taking no chances with their population and protests. Overall, it goes to show how much these revolutions have changed everyone's mindset and actions. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08574814309756349509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1042587494012331021.post-28236252162072727822013-02-08T10:08:57.250-08:002013-02-08T10:08:57.250-08:00This is an interesting aspect of a potentially rev...This is an interesting aspect of a potentially revolutionary Iran. As you said, increased media freedom was a staple of pre-election Iran that frequently provided a useful facade of freedom beyond what any regional state appeared to offer. The repression today, however, would seem to foreshadow another intervention by the Ayatollah. This time, it appears that he is attempting to circumvent the power free media gives to opposition leaders in hopes of making an intervention in the election less blatantly obvious. <br /><br />The potential development of a nuclear weapon before the election throws another interesting twist into the mix. Should Iran develop a bomb prior to the election, it would give the Ayatollah an increased capacity to tamper with the results. He would ostensibly have nuclear non-proliferation powers taking a desperate interest in the maintenance of the status quo to shield a nuclear bomb from the throes of domestic upheaval. <br /> <br />Finally, a quick correction; Ahmadinejad cannot be elected again. Presidential term limits in Iran prevent anyone from winning three consecutive terms. Ahmadinejad can return for one more non-consecutive term in the future, though.<br /><br />I would agree with you that if the elections are tampered with again that the dormant Green Movement of 2009 will be reawakened. Their success, in my view, will hinge on the domestic perceptions regarding the US sanctions that have crushed the Iranian economy. If they view the US as the cause for their economic woes, it is less likely that the economic preconditions for revolution will be present. If they believe the Ayatollah and his regime are to blame, however, it would seem much more likely. Considering the vast spending the government continues to allocate to the nuclear program despite its people struggling under the crushing weight of a nearly worthless currency, the Ayatollah may be found wanting.<br /><br />Sources: <br />http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21571135-time-ali-khamenei-determined-put-one-his-own-charge-make-no<br />and<br />http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21571142-even-if-direct-negotiations-between-united-states-and-iran-ensue-few-predict<br />James Glassmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05009163868468382001noreply@blogger.com